Tory And SNP Seats To Drop Further As Labour Soars And Libdems Increase

20th June 2024

The latest Yougov poll Show further slides in the number of seats for Tory and SNP.

Keir Starmer continues to be on a record-breaking path, according to YouGov's latest general election MRP model. The central projection for the Labour party sits at 425 seat wins, up by 125 on their 2019 total, and up three seats since ther first model a week ago.

While YouGov's second MRP of the July 2024 election campaign shows little change for the Labour party compared to our first estimation, there is a notable drop in the number of estimated Conservative seats. According to our latest model, Sunak's party would win just 108 seats if the election were being held today, down 32 from two weeks ago.

If this result were to come to pass, it would be the lowest number of seats won by the Conservative party in its near 200-year history of contesting British elections.

YouGov's second MRP projection of the 2024 general election campaign shows the Tories winning the fewest seats in their near-200 year history.

Estimated seat projections based on modelled responses from 36,161 adults in England and Wales, and 3,818 in Scotland.

The latest stats
Labour 425 (+223)
Conservatives 108 (-257)
Lib Dems 67 (+56)
SNP 20 (-28)
Reform UK 5 (+5)
Plaid 4 (±0)
Green 2 (+1)

See the Yougov map here showing every area